【必讀】美國著名經濟學家深層分析投資移民關鍵點
流覽次數：3323    添加時間:2016/7/1    來源:中華網

Scott Wagner 美國著名經濟學家
 
 Scott Wagner 是區域中心控股集團的首席經濟學家。 2011 年至 2013 年期間,他與美國移民局EB-5 投資移民裁判庭密切合作, 領導顧問專家團為 EB-5 項目的眾多現行裁定及行政程式做出了奠基性的貢獻。在 2014 年, Wagner Consulting Group瓦格納諮詢公司創始人, 為 EB-5 提供經濟分析諮詢服務。他在EB-5 領域的專業積澱和美國移民局的內部視角是集團的寶貴財富。
 
 眾所周知,就業是否能完成創造是 EB-5 投資移民成功與否的關鍵因素, 而圍繞此關鍵因素的種種話題一直彌漫在 EB-5 行業內外的各種媒介。我們就此話題向 Scott 提出了 8 個基本問題,希望在 Scott 的回復之後, 能讓大家對於就業創造的方法和標準上有一個更加清楚的認識和理解。
 
 基於當下美國投資移民非常火熱,為了讓更多有這方面需求的人深層次的瞭解投資移民的關鍵點,我們採訪了Scott Wagner。
 
 以下記者簡稱Q1,Scott Wagner簡稱Scott。
 
 Q1: In general, what’s the most crucial factor in getting I-829 approval? (總體來說, 獲得美國投資移民永久綠卡批准的決定性因素是什麼? )
 
 Scott: Accountability, consistency, and detail-oriented project management. Also, reasonable job creation estimates. There are lots of reasons for denials and RFEs at the I-829 stage, but insufficient job creation seems to be the most frequent. Therefore, to make sure that project’s job creation is reasonable and conservative is one of the key factors in getting I-829 approval.
 
 譯文: 責任性,一致性,和完善的項目管理。此外,就是合理的就業數字計算。在 829階段(永久綠卡申請階段),被提出補件和被拒絕的原因有很多,就業創造不足或不合理,是所有原因中出現最多的一個。所以在就業創造方面,確保擁有合理穩健的計算模式,是獲得美國投資移民永久綠卡批准的決定性因素之一。
 
 Q2: How many jobs does every $500,000 investment have to create? (每 50 萬美元的投資需要創造多少就業? )(也就是說都少個就業可以創造一個移民名額)
 
 Scott: 10 total jobs. This can include direct, indirect, and induced.
 
 譯文: 10 個就業, 這裡面包含直接, 間接和衍生就業。
 
 Q4: What is direct job creation, indirect job creation and induced job creation? How do you calculate them? (什麼是直接就業, 間接和衍生就業?如何計算得出的? )
 
 Scott: Here’s the breakdown of the job categories. They are calculated using an Input Output (I-O) model. There are several I-O models. I prefer to use the Regional Input Output Modeling System (RIMS II) because it is transparent, simple for USCIS adjudicators to understand, and because it is produced by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis – a government agency.
 
 • Direct Jobs represent the jobs that are directly generated through the on-site operations of the business (for example: me, the Economist at RCH).
 
 • Indirect Jobs represent the jobs that are created elsewhere as a result of supply purchases made by the business (for example: a manufacturing job at Dell where the computer that I am using was made)
 
 • Induced Jobs represent the jobs that are created elsewhere as a result of expenditures made by the employees of the business and supplier businesses (for example: a waiter at the restaurant where I am going to eat lunch today)
 
 譯文: 以下是就業創造的類型劃分。 這些就業是通過投入-產出( I-O)模型計算出來的。
 
 投入-產出( I-O)模型分為幾種,我比較傾向於用區域投入產出模型系統( RIMS II),
 
 因為這個系統對於移民官來說理解起來比較簡單,而且這個模型是政府機構-美國經濟分
 
 析局建立的。
 
 • 直接就業是指企業運營過程中直接產生的就業(例如, 有一家企業雇傭我作為經濟分析師,我就算是直接就業)
 
 • 間接就業是指企業在供應鏈上所產生的就業(例如,戴爾電腦的製造廠商)
 
 • 衍生就業是指企業在運營過程中和供應鏈上產生的就業人員平時生活消費中所產生
 
 的就業(例如,我今天吃午餐的餐廳所雇傭的服務員)
 
 Q3: How does direct investment and regional centers differ in creating jobs? Which one has more advantages? (直接投資和通過區域中心投資在就業創造上有區別嗎?哪個更有優勢? )
 
 Scott: A regional center is permitted to take credit for indirect and induced jobs. A direct investment is not. The regional center model is advantageous because the investor can take credit for the indirect and induced jobs created during the construction process. Construction is a reliable job creation process whereas operations are more susceptible to the failure of the business or product and the ability of the company to earn expected revenues.
 
 譯文: 通過區域中心投資在計算就業上是可以使用間接和衍生就業的,而直接投資則是
 
 不可以的。二者相比較,區域中心的模型比較有利,因為在計算就業的時候是可以將建築施工過程中所產生的間接和衍生就業包括在內的。建築施工過程產生的就業更加的安全,將來企業倒閉或者公司經營不善只會影響經營過程中產生的就業,對建築施工過程產生的就業沒有影響。
 
 Q5: At which stages of a project job can be created? (在一個項目中,哪個或哪些階段是可以產生就業的? )
 
 Scott: Construction and operations. Construction is a defined period while operations is ongoing. Jobs can also be created during an expansion of operations. RCH, in particular, focuses on the construction phase, where job creation is more predictable.
 
 譯文: 建築過程和經營過程。建築施工時間是固定的,但是經營是持續性的。企業擴大經營也可以產生就業。SBA504貸款投資移民項目只計算建築施工過程中產生的就業, 這部分就業是可預測性的,只要項目完工,就業即成功創造。
 
 Q6: Do indirect and induced job creations necessarily rely on direct job creations? (間接和衍生就業的創造一定要依靠直接就業的產生來實現嗎? )
 
 Scott: They are all related. But the extent to which indirect/induced jobs rely on the direct jobs depends on the specific methodology. As I’ve mentioned, RCH focuses on the construction phase. The methodology we use to create jobs during the construction phase does not rely on direct jobs, rather the methodology relies on expenditures, which are more predictable and easier to account for.
 
 譯文: 他們都是相關聯的。但是間接和衍生就業是否要依靠直接就業取決於具體我們使用的方法。如我之前提到的, SBA540貸款投資移民項目只計算建築施工過程中產生的就業, 這部分就業不用依靠直接就業的產生來實現,而是取決於建築費用的支出,也就是花錢來創造就業,所以這部分就業是更容易預測和解釋的。
 
 Q7: When USCIS review I-829 applications, which category of job creation will be most easily acknowledged? How difficult is it to generate this category of job creation? (在移民局審批永久綠卡的申請時,什麼類別的就業最容易獲得認可?此類就業的創造難度有多大? )
 
 Scott: Jobs from construction are most easily acknowledged because they rely on expenditures, which more are predictable and easier to account for. For example, if I want to buy a car, I know how much it’s going to cost. I pay that money. I have a record of that money. Jobs are created from my expenditures. In other words, jobs are created when money is spent, and it is the easiest way to create jobs.
 
 譯文: 建築過程產生的就業是最容易被認可的,因為這部分就業取決於建築費用的支
 
 出,所以更容易預測和解釋。例如,如果你想買一輛車,你知道你要花多少錢,並且有你花了這筆錢的記錄。就業是通過你花了多少錢計算出來的,也就是說,只要錢花到了該花的地方,就業自然產生, 這也是最簡單的創造就業方法。
 
 Q8: As an investor, what’s the easiest way to learn to determine different projects’ respective potential in fulfilling its job creation requirements? Or what information do we need to roughly calculate potential projects’ job creations? Can you give an example? ( 作為一個投資人,在選擇項目時如何在最短的時間內,相對準確的甄別待選項目完成就業創造的可能性?或者需要掌握什麼資訊,如何通過簡單的運算得出待選項目能創造出就業的數量?能否舉個例子? )
 
 Scott: My advice is to go small. Big projects have bigger problems. Bigger changes in costs. More scrutiny. Take the California Bullet Train, for example, with each phase of development, the estimated cost changes by tens of millions of dollars. That’s a lot of jobs. With big projects, it’s more difficult to forecasts costs, and it’s more difficult to track costs. Small projects are more predictable. There have less variables. Builders and project managers have more experience. You don’t want to punt your investment or your family’s citizenship. To calculate a very, very rough estimate of a project’s job creation, you need a construction cost and an I-0 employment multiplier, like RIMS II. The size of the I-O multiplier varies with several factors. To be conservative, you can estimate that each $1.0 million of construction costs will create 5 to 6 indirect and induced jobs. For example, if the construction cost is $5.0 million and the I-O multiplier is 5.5, then you’ll have 27 jobs. This will give you a very quick and rough estimate. However, at that point, the best thing to do is to make sure that your regional center is using an experienced economist and ask for more accurate job creation statistics. There’s a lot more to it. Multipliers depend on a region, and the choice of region depends on the specific location of a project and the local economic dynamics.
 
 譯文:我建議選擇規模較小的項目。大的項目一般問題會更多,建築成本的變化更大,
 
 更多的審查。以加州新幹線為例,每個階段的成本變動都有數百億美金, 這背後有很多的工作需要做。大的項目通常比較難於預估成本,也非常難以計算跟進成本的支出。
 
 規模較小的項目可預測性更高, 變動性更小。建築商和項目經理有更多的經驗。你不會想要您的投資和全家的綠卡受到任何的影響。粗略的估算就業的創造人數需要建築成本和投入-產出( I-O)乘數,在 RIMS II 的計算模型中,投入-產出乘數會因為很多因素的變化而改變。保守預估,一般來說每 100 萬美元的建築預算可以產生 5 到 6 個間接和衍生就業。例如,如果一個項目的建築成本是 500萬美金, I-O 乘數是 5.5, 那麼這個項目可以 產生 27 個就業機會。 這樣計算可以快速得出一個粗略的就業預估。但是,我建議請一位有經驗的經濟分析師,因為就業的計算取決於很多的因素。乘數取決於區域,區域的選擇取決於項目的具體地點和當地的經濟動態。
 
 最後Scott Wagner根據自己多年的分析投資移民項目的經驗,給出六點標準來判別投資移民項目的優劣：
 
 1, 是否有美國政府指定的協力廠商權威認證機構先行風險評估,
 
 2, 是否有美國政府和銀行金融機構參與投資
 
 3, 是否是多家機構投資,EB5投資是否位於第一清償順位還款
 
 4, 建築項目是否有建築完工保險
 
 5, 是否為每一個投資人成立一家有限合夥公司
 
 6, 是否是中小型項目,EB5款資金不超過33%
 
 投資移民畢竟不是件小事,關乎資產,關乎未來。掌握這六點標準,會大大的降低投資移民的風險。
 
 來源：中華網